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IEA Monthly Oil Market Report April 2019 – Highlights

Von   /   12. April 2019

Our  global  demand  growth  estimates  for  2018  and  2019  are  again  unchanged  at  1.3  mb/d  and  1.4  mb/d,  respectively.  After  a  slow  start  to  the  year,   OECD  growth  will  be  0.3  mb/d,  with  non-OECD growing by 1.1 mb/d.

•Demand  in  China,  India  and  the  US  is  estimated  to  have  grown  by  1 mb/d in Jan-Feb 2019. OECD demand fell in 4Q18 for the first time since   end-2014   and   also   in   1Q19,   mainly   on   weaker   European   numbers, but it will recover, led by the US.

•Global   oil   supply   dropped   340   kb/d   in   March,   as   OPEC+   cuts   deepened  and  Venezuelan  output  fell  sharply.  At  99.2 mb/d,  it  was  3.1 mb/d  below  November  2018  and  up  530  kb/d  y-o-y.  In  2019,  non-OPEC production will grow 1.7 mb/d versus 2.8 mb/d last year.

•OPEC crude oil production tumbled 550 kb/d in March, to 30.1 mb/d, on further cuts from Saudi Arabia and steep losses in Venezuela. Saudi output  dropped  to  its  lowest  in  over  two  years,  boosting  compliance  with supply cuts to 153%. The call on OPEC rises to 30.9 mb/d in 2Q19.

•Global  refining  throughput  fell  by  2.5 mb/d  in  March as  unplanned  outages and accidents hindered the US in particular. Our 2019 growth estimate   is   revised   down   to   0.7 mb/d   on   tighter   crude   market   fundamentals: 3Q19 could see the largest draws since 2011.

•OECD oil stocks fell by 21.7 mb on the month in February after three months   of   increases.  The decrease   was   more   than   the   five-year average  of  5.1  mb  due  to  larger  gasoline  draws  and  a  lower  crude  build. March preliminary data show a significant crude build in Europe

.•ICE  Brent  reached  a  five-month  high  above  $71/bbl  in  early  April  on  supply  concerns.  New  infrastructure  capacity  in  the  US  helped  WTI  to  narrow  its  discount  to  Brent  to  $7/bbl.  Gasoline  markets  continued  to  rally, while cracks for most other refined products fell in March.

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