Our global demand growth estimates for 2018 and 2019 are again unchanged at 1.3 mb/d and 1.4 mb/d, respectively. After a slow start to the year, OECD growth will be 0.3 mb/d, with non-OECD growing by 1.1 mb/d.
•Demand in China, India and the US is estimated to have grown by 1 mb/d in Jan-Feb 2019. OECD demand fell in 4Q18 for the first time since end-2014 and also in 1Q19, mainly on weaker European numbers, but it will recover, led by the US.
•Global oil supply dropped 340 kb/d in March, as OPEC+ cuts deepened and Venezuelan output fell sharply. At 99.2 mb/d, it was 3.1 mb/d below November 2018 and up 530 kb/d y-o-y. In 2019, non-OPEC production will grow 1.7 mb/d versus 2.8 mb/d last year.
•OPEC crude oil production tumbled 550 kb/d in March, to 30.1 mb/d, on further cuts from Saudi Arabia and steep losses in Venezuela. Saudi output dropped to its lowest in over two years, boosting compliance with supply cuts to 153%. The call on OPEC rises to 30.9 mb/d in 2Q19.
•Global refining throughput fell by 2.5 mb/d in March as unplanned outages and accidents hindered the US in particular. Our 2019 growth estimate is revised down to 0.7 mb/d on tighter crude market fundamentals: 3Q19 could see the largest draws since 2011.
•OECD oil stocks fell by 21.7 mb on the month in February after three months of increases. The decrease was more than the five-year average of 5.1 mb due to larger gasoline draws and a lower crude build. March preliminary data show a significant crude build in Europe
.•ICE Brent reached a five-month high above $71/bbl in early April on supply concerns. New infrastructure capacity in the US helped WTI to narrow its discount to Brent to $7/bbl. Gasoline markets continued to rally, while cracks for most other refined products fell in March.