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IEA Oil Market Report March 2018 Highlights

Von   /   15. März 2018

IEA Oil Market Report

 

Demand is expected to increase by 1.5 mb/d in 2018 to 99.3 mb/d,

a 0.1 b/d upward revision compared to last month’s forecast

Global oil demand is estimated at 97.8 mb/d in 2017, unchanged from last month.

Strong early data contributed to an upward revision of 240 kb/d in

our outlook for OECD growth in 2018. The switch to natural gas in

Pakistan and Iraq’s power sectors is responsible for a downward

revision of 150 kb/d to non -OECD demand.

Global oil supply in February eased to 97.9 mb/d and was up by

0.7 mb/d on a year earlier due to higher non- OPEC output.

Strong  growth in the US is expected to boost this year’s non-

OPEC expansion to 1.8 mb/d compared to 760 kb/d in 2017.

OPEC crude oil production edged lower in February to 32.1

mb/d, led by losses in Venezuela and the UAE. The call on OPEC crude rises steadily to 32.6 mb/d in 2H18, 480 kb/d higher than current output.

OECD commercial stocks rose in January for the first time in seven

months to reach 2 871 mb. However, the 18 mb increase was only half the usual level. The surplus to the five -year averaged fell

to 53 mb. Cushing crude stocks reached their lowest level in three years.

Global crude oil prices fell in the first half of February, before

stabilising later in the month. The ICE Brent futures curve remains in

backwardation. However, spreads are narrowing . Brent prices have

averaged close to $67/bbl this year.

Global refining throughput in 1Q18 slowed from 4Q17’s record levels by 0.9 mb/d . It will ramp up to a new record in 2Q18 at 81.8

mb/d. We assume refining throughput will only partially meet the seasonal demand increase, with inventories filling the gap

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