IEA Oil Market Report
Demand is expected to increase by 1.5 mb/d in 2018 to 99.3 mb/d,
a 0.1 b/d upward revision compared to last month’s forecast
Global oil demand is estimated at 97.8 mb/d in 2017, unchanged from last month.
Strong early data contributed to an upward revision of 240 kb/d in
our outlook for OECD growth in 2018. The switch to natural gas in
Pakistan and Iraq’s power sectors is responsible for a downward
revision of 150 kb/d to non -OECD demand.
Global oil supply in February eased to 97.9 mb/d and was up by
0.7 mb/d on a year earlier due to higher non- OPEC output.
Strong growth in the US is expected to boost this year’s non-
OPEC expansion to 1.8 mb/d compared to 760 kb/d in 2017.
OPEC crude oil production edged lower in February to 32.1
mb/d, led by losses in Venezuela and the UAE. The call on OPEC crude rises steadily to 32.6 mb/d in 2H18, 480 kb/d higher than current output.
OECD commercial stocks rose in January for the first time in seven
months to reach 2 871 mb. However, the 18 mb increase was only half the usual level. The surplus to the five -year averaged fell
to 53 mb. Cushing crude stocks reached their lowest level in three years.
Global crude oil prices fell in the first half of February, before
stabilising later in the month. The ICE Brent futures curve remains in
backwardation. However, spreads are narrowing . Brent prices have
averaged close to $67/bbl this year.
Global refining throughput in 1Q18 slowed from 4Q17’s record levels by 0.9 mb/d . It will ramp up to a new record in 2Q18 at 81.8
mb/d. We assume refining throughput will only partially meet the seasonal demand increase, with inventories filling the gap