Our estimate of 2018 oil demand growth is largely unchanged at 1.3 mb/d Non -OECD data for September and October confirm an expected slowdown due to relatively high prices, although OECD demand has been slightly revised upwards , for 4Q18.
Our projection for oil demand growth in 2019 remains also unchanged, at 1.4 mb/d , as the impact of lower prices is offset by lower economic growth assumptions, weakening currencies and downward revisions to certain countries e.g. Venezuela.
Global oil supply fell 360 kb/d month -on -month (m -o-m) in November to 101. 1 mb/d due lower output in the North Sea, Canada and Russia. Cuts from January reduce non -OPEC production growth for 2019 by 415 kb/d, to 1.5 mb/d, compared with 2.4 mb/d in 2018.
OPEC crude oil out put rose 10 0 kb/d m -o-m to 33.03 mb/d in November as Saudi Arabia and the UAE reached record highs, more than offsetting a sharp loss from Iran. The group agreed to cut output by 0.8 mb/d from January.
Global refining throughput growth came to a halt in 4Q18 , with annual losses in Latin America and Europe only just offset by gains in the US, Middle East and China. Lower crude prices helped margins, although the gasoline -focused US Gulf Coast lagged behind.
OECD commercial stocks rose in October for the fourth consecutive month, by 5.7 mb, to 2 872 mb . They were above the five -year average for the first time since March. NGL and feedstock inventories hit a historic high whereas fuel oil stocks fell to a record low.
Having fallen by 30% since early October , oil prices stabilised with ICE Brent close to $60/bbl and NYMEX WTI at $52/bbl. Weak demand weighed on gasoline and naphtha markets. Freight rates to transport crude and products have soared to multi-year highs.