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IEA sees clouds for oil demand as a result from bearish macroeconomics within the OECD

Von   /   14. Juni 2019

„Our estimate for global oil demand growth in 2019 has been cut for a  second  consecutive  month.It  is  now  projected  at  1.2  mb/d.In 1Q19, global growth was only 0.3 mb/d, and for 2Q19 the estimate is 1.2 mb/d. We expect higher growth in 2H19 at 1.6 mb/d.

 

  • In 2020, global oil  demand  growth  will  rise  to  1.4 mb/d,  supported by  solid  non-OECD  demand  and  petrochemicals  expansion.  The  IMO  switch  will  result  in  major  changes  to  bunker  fuel  demand,  sharply  increasing gasoil demand from 4Q19.

 

  • Non-OPEC supply growth will accelerate from 1.9 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in  2020.  The US  leads  the  gains,  but  solid  growth  also  comes  from  Brazil  and  Norway.  In  May,  global  oil  supply  eased  by  0.1 mb/d to 99.5 mb/d, down 2.8 mb/d from the November peak.

 

  • The call on OPEC crude drops to 29.3 mb/d in 2020, 650 kb/d belowthe May output  level.OPEC  supply  fell to  its  lowest  since  2014  as  Iranian  supply  plunged due  to  sanctions  and  on  lower  Saudi and Nigerian output. OPEC’s effective spare capacity was 3.2 mb/d.

 

  • Global refinery throughput in May was at its lowest level in two yearson maintenance and  unplanned  outages. By  August,  refinery  runs  could  be  more  than  4  mb/d  higher.

 

 

In  2019-20,  the  global  refining  industry will add 3.5 mb/d of new capacity.

 

  • OECD oil stocks rose by 15.8 mb in April to 2 883 mb, and are slightly above the five-year   average.   In   days   of   forward   demand,   stocks   amount to 59.9 days, 1.6 days below the average. Preliminary data for May show a significant build in US crude stocks.

 

  • Benchmark crude futures  prices  have  fallen  by  20%  since  late  April  partly due to concerns about the health of oil demand. However, the Brent forward curve remains in backwardation suggesting tight prompt markets. Gasoline cracks were pressured by abundant supplies.

 

The demand (summary)

For  the  second  consecutive  month,  we  have  revised  down  our  2019  oil  demand  growth  forecast,  this  time  by  100  kb/d,  to  1.2  mb/d.

The  bulk  of  the  revision  is  in  the  OECD.  We  received  lower  March  consumption  statistics  for  the  Americas,  which  drove  our  overall  OECD  1Q19  growth  estimate  down  by  360 kb/d versus last month’s Report.

Global oil demand is now estimated to have risen by just 250 kb/d year-on-year  (y-o-y)  in  1Q19,  the  lowest  annual  growth  registered  since  4Q11,  when  the  price  of  Brent  crude  oil  averaged  $109/bbl.

Oil  consumption  fell  in  the  OECD by 600 kb/d y-o-y  and  rose  in  non-OECD countries  by  850  kb/d.  A  global  economic  slowdown,  lower  growth  in  the  petrochemical  industry  and  warmer  than  normal  weather  in  the  northern  hemisphere  were  contributory  factors.

One  should  also  bear  in  mind  that  annual  growth  in  1Q18  amounted  to  a  significant  1.9  mb/d.  This  also  contributed  to  low growth on a y-o-y basis.“

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